Decision Making under Uncertainty von Denise Keltie

Revision with unchanged content. This study explores decision making amongst ski area management. In particular, it examined how managers are challenged by the risk and uncertainty as a result of weather and visitor activity patterns. Ski operations in southern British Columbia were chosen for study because of the importance of ski operations to the economy of this region as well as the challenging and variable weather events they have recently experienced. For example, this area hosts international and regional visitors as well as major events like the Vancouver 2010 Olympics and Paralympic Games events. As a result, there is considerable interest in creating ski conditions that are of international calibre. The analysis should help to answer the questions: - What procedures are used to make decisions when weather-based probabilities and outcomes are uncertain? - What is the effect of climate variability on ski area operation decision making? - What weather specific risk management policies and procedures have been instituted to deal with uncertainty? - What is the adaptive capacity of ski areas regarding climate change risk, threats and opportunities? - How do trends within the evolving ski industry and ski market influence management decision making?

graduate of the Master's program in Tourism Policy and Planning within the Department of Recreation and Leisure Studies at the University of Waterloo.